The autumn of 2025 has delivered two of the most consequential decisions for the soybean market in recent years.

Argentina's zero-tax window

On 22 September, Argentina suspended export duties on grains and oilseeds until the end of October, or until registered sales reached USD 7 billion. Before the announcement, soybeans were taxed at 26%. Exporters registered sales at record speed and the quota was filled within days. Chinese buyers moved quickly, booking around 20 cargoes of Argentine soybeans, about 1.3 million tonnes, at a time when they had not yet purchased any US new-crop beans. US soybean futures fell to their lowest level since mid-August.

The US–China agreement

On 30 October, following a meeting between the US and Chinese presidents in Busan, Korea, Washington announced that China had agreed to buy 12 million tonnes of US soybeans by early 2026 and at least 25 million tonnes per year in 2026, 2027 and 2028. For reference, China imported 22.5 million tonnes of US soybeans in the 2024/25 marketing year.

Chinese state buyers started booking US cargoes within days. Part of the earlier retaliatory tariffs was removed, although a 10% duty remains, meaning commercial crushers will continue to favour cheaper South American beans when prices allow.

What this means

  • A more balanced flow. After a year in which South America supplied the large majority of China's soybeans, US origin returns as a regular supplier, particularly between October and February.
  • Volatility around policy. Prices will continue to react to the pace of Chinese purchases and to any sign the commitments are slipping.
  • Record South American crop ahead. Brazil's first official estimate for the 2025/26 crop is close to 178 million tonnes, another record. Competition between origins will remain intense in 2026.

Our view

The agreement lowers the risk of a complete break in US–China agricultural trade, which is positive for market stability. But it does not change the fundamentals: global soybean supplies are ample and buyers have options. DBI Resources works with suppliers across the Americas and is positioned to offer clients the most competitive origin month by month.

Sources: Government of Argentina, September 2025; US Treasury statements, 30 October 2025; Conab, October 2025.