The 2026 US wheat harvest will be remembered as one of the smallest in modern history. In its July report, the US Department of Agriculture estimated total wheat production at 1.536 billion bushels (around 42 million tonnes), the smallest crop since 1970/71. Winter wheat output is forecast at 990 million bushels, down 29% on 2025.

Kansas at the centre

The damage is concentrated in the southern Plains, the heartland of hard red winter (HRW) wheat, the class most used for bread flour and widely exported to Asia, Latin America and Africa. Months of drought were followed by spring frosts on already stressed fields. Kansas, the largest wheat-producing state, is expected to harvest around 196 million bushels, down 43% on last year, with a yield of only 33 bushels per acre. About 17% of the planted area is being abandoned. National HRW production is forecast to be the smallest since 1957.

Market reaction

Wheat prices have risen by around 20% since the start of the year, and HRW has gained a strong premium over soft red winter wheat. US export offers for HRW are struggling to compete in international tenders, and US export forecasts have been reduced.

What it means for importers

  • Quality and class substitution. Millers who rely on HRW for protein will need to blend in other classes or switch origins, including Canada, Australia, Argentina and the European Union.
  • More competition for high-protein wheat. With fewer exportable supplies of HRW, protein premiums are likely to stay high into 2027.
  • Weather risk is not over. Forecasters expect a strong El Niño to develop in the second half of 2026, historically associated with dry conditions in Australia, a key supplier to Asia.

Our view

Global wheat stocks remain adequate overall, so this is a market of reallocation rather than shortage. But the loss of a large part of the US HRW crop, combined with El Niño risk for the next Australian harvest, makes origin diversification essential. DBI Resources sources milling wheat from several origins and can help buyers secure quality-specific cargoes for the coming months.

Sources: USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, July 2026; Kansas Wheat; NOAA.